NBA Fast Break Run 5 | Day 5

Fast BreakStandardNBA TopShotNBA2024-2025 NBA SeasonRun 5
Written By Witty

Pick 5 Players who will combine for 5 Offensive Rebounds and 35 Points in the Paint to earn your win.

Overview:

Fast Break Run 5 is shaping up to be a rollercoaster. Day 1 & 3 had over 90% winners whereas Day 2 & 4 had a very low success rate (16% & 2% respectively). Of the 7,500 participants this run, we are already down to 38 perfect records. Kudos to these elite Fast Breakers as there were only 233 winners on Day 4. If the rollercoaster trend continues, we should see an uptick in wins today (what goes down, must come up…right?).

Yesterday was an odd one. Generally speaking, the points scored day isn’t one that has as low a success rate. Even more odd is the Fast Break Dud of the Day is Nikola Jokic, who contributed an unusually low 16 points. It probably didn’t help that he didn’t play the entire 4th quarter and the Nuggets blew out the LA Clippers. There were also only five players who scored more than 30 points - Booker, Jerami Grant, Haliburton, Simons, & KD. Of those five, only one was in the the top five most utilized players. For that, Devin Booker is your Fast Break Stud of the Day.

As there are only two games today, there will be a narrow range of players most people will utilize. That likely means the majority will either win together (like Day 1 & 3) or have another rough outing (like Day 2 & 4). Here’s hoping it’s the former and not the latter.

Today’s Objective(s):

Fast Break Day 5 requires five (5) players who will grab 5 or more offensive rebounds and scores 35 or more points in the paint, which means your lineup will need to average 1.0 OREB and 7.0 PIP per player. You need to be close to the basket to score in the paint, which so happens to be where you can grab an offensive rebound. Although not directly correlated, they’re not far off. So, there are players who can get you both and there are others who specialize in one objective or the other. Let’s dive into today’s stats.

  • Little of Both: Alperen Sengun, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Johnson

  • Offensive Glass Crashers: Alperen Sengun, Clint Capela, Isaiah Hartenstein, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Onyeka Okongwu, Tari Eason, Amen Thompson, Brook Lopez, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Luguentz Dort, Dillon Brooks, Cason Wallace

  • Scores Down Low: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Williams, Jalen Johnson, Isaiah Hartenstein

  • Top Five (5) Players in FB Lineups: C. Capela (85%), A. Sengun (80%), O. Okongwu (53%), I. Hartenstein (51%), G. Antetokounmpo (50%)

Emirates NBA Cup:

Looking Ahead:

  • Tomorrow, 4 blocks & 15 free throws made will be the two (2) objectives and there are 10 teams in action in regular season play

  • Remaining objectives after today:

    • 2x: 3PM

    • 1x: BLK, FTM, STL, FGA, FGM, AST, REB, PTS, PIP

Considerations:

  • Today’s results will determine the two teams playing on Day 8 in Las Vegas

  • Day 8 will only have two (2) teams in action, which we won’t know until Day 5

  • Day 10 & 12 will only have six (6) teams in action

  • Outside of the NBA Cup, Sacramento & New Orleans have the most number of games (4)

  • Every other team has three (3) games remaining

  • Plan your lineups around Day 12 as it requires the most divergent stats of this run - points in the paint & three pointers made

  • There are no games scheduled for December 18th

  • December 19th is a big day for returns from injury including (tentatively) Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson, & others

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected offensive rebounds & points in the paint according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.

Run 5 Rewards:

  • Daily Reward: Top 100 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack

  • Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, 9, or 12 wins and each tier earns you a pack

    • 3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack

    • 6 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack

    • 9 wins: Fast Break pack

    • 12 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack

  • Run Reward: Place in the top 500 overall

    • Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco, CA including airfare and hotel

    • Rank 2-500: Spendable credit at varying values

Additional Resources:

Tome Collective’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):

Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.

If it were only one poor performance, we likely would’ve survived as we had both Book & KD in our lineup…but two poor performances (Joker & Embiid) sunk us on Day 4. More specifically, if Embiid didn’t leave with an injury and had scored five more points, we’d be in the green. But that’s how it goes sometimes. Two wins and 7 more to go out of 8 remaining days. That’ll remain the stretch goal, but realistic target is the six wins.

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.

Projected Offensive Rebounds

Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+

Projected Points in the Paint

Projected OREB & PIP

NBA Fast Break Grid

Support us by:

  • Subscribing to our Newsletter to receive emails with Fast Break analysis

  • Following us on Twitter/X: @TomeCollective and @WittyCollector

  • Joining Tome+ for an enhanced versions of the Fast Break articles, All Day Prediction Game articles, additional resources, discounts, and future benefits

December 2024 Promotion:

If you subscribe to tome+ in the month of December and your order number ends in either a zero or a five (ex: #110, #115, #120), you’ll receive a Rare NBA Top Shot moment of your choosing valued up to $10.00 (valid through December 31, 2024).

Aren’t able to pay a monthly fee? Check back next month when we bring back the ‘Moment for Subscription’ offer. If, however, you own a Tome NFT on flowty.io, you can sign up for one month of tome+ in exchange for one (1) 2024-2025 rookie moment, which can be sent to TS: TomeCollective. This promotion ends on December 31, 2024.

Witty
Previous

NBA Fast Break Run 5 | Day 6
Next

NBA Fast Break Run 5 | Day 4