NBA Fast Break Run 4 | Day 5
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 5 Blocks and 5 Steals to earn your win.
Overview:
Sometimes when you put something out into the universe, it comes back bearing fruit. Other times it comes back and bites you in the behind like it did yesterday. Note to self, do not use a hypothetical example where Anthony Edwards has an off night and shoots terribly from the field because it may come true. Three of the top five players used in lineups are your co-Fast Break Duds of the Day. Anthony Edwards shot 3 of 13 (23.1%), LeBron shot 4 of 16 (25.0%), and Anthony Davis shot 4 of 14 (28.6%). Considering each were used in over 40% of lineups, it is unsurprising that only 21% of participants earned a win yesterday. As a result, we are down to 336 perfect records this run and the field may dwindle further after the next two days due to the difficulty of the objectives.
On the other end of the spectrum, CJ McCollum was used in 55% of lineups and shot 12 of 26 (46.2%) to earn the Fast Break Stud of the Day. Honorable mention goes to Payton Pritchard who went 10 of 17 in 32 minutes off the bench and is staking his claim for Sixth Man of the Year. If he continues his recent play, it’d be difficult to argue against him being the frontrunner for the award and someone you may lean on if there are multiple injuries in the Boston lineup.
With seven (7) days remaining in this run, you still have a chance at the nine-win pack so long as you have at least two wins. Injuries and late scratches have been the theme of this run, so be diligent about checking your lineups. If you aren’t already a Tome Newsletter subscriber, we provide a summary of the day’s games in each email. On the plus side, Fast Break allows you to adjust your lineup after the start of the game (newer feature), but this benefit is moot if the player you have is playing in the late matchup. This is also an inherent disadvantage for overseas participants due to some of the game times. Step 1 is setting the proper lineup and Step 2 is the pivot if needed.
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Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 5 requires five (5) players who accumulate 5 or more blocks and swipe 5 or steals, which means your lineup will need to average 1.0 BLK & 1.0 STL per player. Although these two objectives are infrequently correlated, there are some players who have the ability to thrive in both stat categories. Wemby is your star player here as he is one of the most automatic (when healthy) to give you blocks. It would not be out of the question for him to give you all the blocks you need on the day, but he isn’t a player that is widely available as the low ask for his common is currently is $110 (Metallic Silver) - cost prohibitive for many, especially those who are using predominantly common moments.
So who else can get you over the hump? The top two that come to mind are Jaren Jackson (rare low ask $15) and Brook Lopez (rare low ask $10) as they both have accumulated 2.3+ blocks & 1.3+ steals in their last 10 games. As is the case with both of these stats, there is no guarantee that’ll happen today but their probability is higher than most. Regardless of whom you include in your lineup, you’ll inevitably need to moneyball the day and identify players who are proficient in at least one of the categories, so let’s dive into the projections.
Little of Both: Victor Wembanyama, Jaren Jackson, Brook Lopez
Used to Rejection(s): Victor Wembanyama, Walker Kessler, Brook Lopez, Myles Turner, Nick Richards, Jaren Jackson
Familiar with Five Finger Discounts (on the court): Jalen Williams, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jordan Poole
Top Five (5) Players in Lineups: B. Lopez (77%), J. Jackson (63%), M. Turner (52%), J. Williams (34%), E. Mobley (30%)
Upcoming Objective(s):
Tomorrow, 30 plus/minus will be the single objective and there are 12 teams in action
Remaining objectives after today:
2x: REB, AST
1x: +/-, OREB, PTS, 3PM, FGM, BLK
Considerations:
No teams are playing the tail end of a back-to-back today
Day 6 has the extra elusive Plus/Minus objective
Day 8 will be one of the most challenging days this run as it requires OREB & 3PM
Day 11 has only two (2) teams in action
Brooklyn has the least number of games remaining (2)
There are fourteen (14) teams who have four (4) games remaining (refer to the Fast Break Grid)
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected Blocks & Steals according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 100 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack
Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack
3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
6 wins: Three (3) Grail Seeker packs
9 wins: Fast Break pack
11 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 500 overall
Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA game in Paris, France including airfare and hotel
Rank 2-500: Spendable credit at varying values
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (as of 11/27/2024)
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as Tome Society participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
After leaving Kyrie in my lineup on Day 4, I didn’t want to repeat my mistake, so I swapped out Jaylen Brown & Brandon Ingram before it was too late, but the former ended up playing tonight even though he was questionable. The move ended up paying off as Payton Pritchard put in some work off the bench and led us to win #2 of this run. It doesn’t get any easier on the block/steal night though.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.
Projected Blocks
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Steals
Projected BLK & STL
NBA Fast Break Grid
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