NBA Fast Break Run 4 | Day 4
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 35 Field Goals Made and 45 Field Goal Attempts to earn your win.
Overview:
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With 11 assists (44% of the target) to go along with his 6 three pointers (40% of the target), James Harden led the way for the majority of the 64% winners on Day 3 and is the Fast Break Stud of the Day. The top five players utilized in lineups did their part including Tyler Herro who sank 6 three pointers, LBJ distributed 12 assists, Garland helped Cleveland take down Boston with 8 assists & 4 three pointers, and Haliburton who distributed 7 assists & sank 2 three pointers. If you had a couple of these players in your lineup, it likely set you up well for a win yesterday. With that said, no Day 3 duds to bench.
Today’s objective is virtually a single objective as field goals made & field goal attempts are the definition of correlation. You can’t make shots unless you take them and there are plenty of players who could exceed 50% of today’s FGA objective alone. So, your focus should shift entirely to the field goals made side of the equation. Based on how previous iterations have gone, today should be relatively easy but beware of poor shooting days from your star players. If Anthony Edwards, for example, were to go 2-20 from the field, that would not bode well for your probability of success. Hopefully luck is on your side you and you avoid off days.
With eight (8) days remaining in this run, you technically still have a chance at the nine-win pack so long as you have a single win. More would be ideal considering the difficulty of the upcoming days (tomorrow requires the always volatile 5 blocks & 5 steals for example). Day 6, 8, & 11 are also higher on the difficulty scale. Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, let’s dive into today’s objective(s).
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Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 4 requires five (5) players who make 35 or more shots and take 45 or more shots, which means your lineup will need to average 7.0 FGM & 9.0 FGA per player. The average NBA player shoots 45% from the field, which means making 35 field goals will often require 70 shot attempts. So, you should focus your attention on players who are attempting a lot of shots in order to make more shots. Now the closer a player is to the basket, the higher the probability they’re making that shot (yes, obviously). It’s no surprise then that players like Anthony Davis (rare low ask $24) and Nikola Vucevic (rare low ask $18) are popular choices today. Additionally, players who are proficient slashers who are often seen rising above the rim (Ant (rare low ask $35) & LaVine (rare low ask $9)) are high on the utilization list also. Below you’ll find the top projections for today where we’ve focused primarily on FGM.
Shot Makers (and Takers):
Tier 1: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards
Tier 2: Nikola Vucevic, Brandon Ingram, Tyler Herro, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Zach LaVine, Jaylen Brown
Tier 3: Julius Randle, CJ McCollum, Dennis Schroder, Cameron Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler
Top Five (5) Players in Lineups: CJ McCollum (53%), A. Edwards (48%), Z. LaVine (46%), J. Brown (44%), A. Davis (37%)
Upcoming Objective(s):
Tomorrow, 5 Blocks & 5 Steals will be the two (2) objectives and there are 22 teams in action
Remaining objectives after today:
2x: BLK, REB, AST
1x: STL, +/-, OREB, PTS, 3PM, FGM
Considerations:
Boston, Brooklyn, LA Lakers, Miami, & New Orleans are playing the tail end of a back-to-back today
Day 6 has the extra elusive Plus/Minus objective
Day 8 will be one of the most challenging days this run as it requires OREB & 3PM
Day 11 has only two (2) teams in action
Eight (8) teams have three (3) games remaining (refer to the Fast Break Grid)
Every other team has four (4) games remaining
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected Field Goals Made & Field Goal Attempts according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 100 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack
Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack
3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
6 wins: Three (3) Grail Seeker packs
9 wins: Fast Break pack
11 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 500 overall
Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA game in Paris, France including airfare and hotel
Rank 2-500: Spendable credit at varying values
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (as of 11/27/2024)
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as Tome Society participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
Made the mistake of leaving Kyrie in the lineup (ruled out) and was unable to update it due to family obligations and fell five (5) assists shy of today’s objective. This was a preventable loss and that reinforces my own message that injury reports are key and could be the difference between the next tier pack. It will likely impede our Run 4 success as we would need to win the remaining eight days to earn the nine-win pack, so we are likely aiming for the six-win Grail Seeker packs.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.
Projected Field Goals Made
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Projected Field Goal Attempts
Projected FGM & FGA
NBA Fast Break Grid
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