NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 11

Fast BreakStandardNBA TopShotNBA2024-2025 NBA SeasonRun 3
Written By Witty

Pick 5 Players who will combine for 20 Assists minus Turnovers to earn your win.

Overview:

There are two (2) days left in Fast Break Run 3 and many participants are within reach of the mid and top tier pack rewards. Some are a win away and some need to win out - both achievable so long as the final two days go according to plan - no sweat [insert sweating gif]. Although SGA wasn’t used heavily yesterday considering he’s much more useful on other nights, he had a rare zero assists/zero block day which was his first all season - awful timing for anyone who played him. But the Fast Break Dud of the Day Award goes to Isaiah Hartenstein who produced the same Assist/Block output as his teammate SGA - zeroes. This after accumulating 4 blocks in his last game, which contributed to 38% of lineups utilizing his services. Of the top players found in the thousands of lineups yesterday, JJJ, Robert Williams, & Dyson Daniels all contributed multiple steals & blocks (each had a total of 4) which helped many earn a win, but the Fast Break Stud of the Day goes to Franz Wagner as he delivered 2 blocks and 4 steals. With Paolo Banchero out for at least another month, Franz has been a stat stuffing stud for the 12-7 Orlando Magic and a big part of their recent success (9-1 in their last 10 games).

Yesterday, we highlighted Dyson Daniels ahead of the Blocks & Assists night and he delivered two of each for the 32% of lineups who used him. Unsurprisingly, his rare low ask rose from $13 to $15 in the past 24 hours and will be a solid addition to Fast Break collections for the remainder of this season. For today, Tyus Jones is a diamond in the rough for assists (and assist minus turnovers) nights. He only has two Rare moments including a 2024-2025 Fresh Threads…which is priced at an inexpensive (current) low ask of $6. He averages about 30 minutes a game for Phoenix and averaged 8.0 assists in his last 5 games with just three total turnovers during those five games - a decent addition to collections in need of consistent Assists.

There are over 8,100 participants this run and we are down to 81 perfect records, which will likely drop after today considering the volatile objective. Based on how this run has gone, though, there will likely be a lot of perfect records after Day 12, which then comes down to average position. Priority 1 is to survive and win each of the remaining two days for the current 81 and priority 2 is maximizing the daily scores as much as possible. Same is true for anyone who’s pushing for a top 200 finish to earn some spendable credit. With that said, let’s dive into today’s objectives.

Note: We will be rebranding from ‘Tome Society’ to ‘Tome Collective’ by December 1st, 2024 based on an adjustment in the creative direction of this brand. We have already updated our Dapper and social handle ahead of the change, but you will begin to notice updates throughout.

Today’s Objective(s):

Fast Break Day 11 requires five (5) players who will balance 20 assists minus turnovers or more, which means your lineup will need an average of 4.0 AST-TO per player. Simply put, this objective has historically been one of the more volatile and is included in most Runs for this very reason. One player could give you the minimum you need and then another person goes negative on a bad day, which craters your chances. You’ll need players who have the tendency/ability to deliver a high number of assists, but also limits the errors. A player with 8 assists and 6 turnovers will do you no favors on a day like today.

For example, LeBron has averaged over 10 assists per game in his last 10 games, but he’s also turned the ball over about 4 times per game on average. A poor assists night mixed with a poor turnover night would result in a challenging night for your lineup. But if LBJ can maintain his assists average while minimizing the mistakes, he’ll contribute to your overall total in a positive manner. Additionally, Chris Paul has average 8.6 assists over his last 10 games, but only turned it over 2 times per game. With Wemby back in the lineup, CP3 had 7 assists and no turnovers in their most recent game which bodes well for his inclusion in lineups today.

  • Dishes the Ball, Protects the Ball: Chris Paul, Fred VanVleet, Tyus Jones

  • Top Five (5) Players in Lineups: F. VanVleet (79%), T. Jones (79%), J. Giddey (68%), D. Booker (59%), C. Paul (37%)

Upcoming Objective(s):

  • On the final day of this run, 130 Points and 15 Three Pointers are needed and 28 teams are in action

Considerations:

  • No team is playing the tail end of a back-to-back today

  • Every team in action today is playing again tomorrow except for Milwaukee

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected Assists minus Turnovers according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.

Rewards:

  • Daily Reward: Top 50 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack

  • Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack

    • 3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack

    • 6 wins: Three (3) Grail Seeker packs

    • 9 wins: Fast Break pack

  • Run Reward: Place in the top 200 overall

    • Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA Cup Finals in Las Vegas including airfare and hotel

    • Rank 2-200: Spendable credit at varying values

Additional Resources:

Tome Society’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):

Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as Tome Society participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.

Draymond was a late add due to Nic Claxton’s injury and contributed no steals or blocks, but we still walked away with a win thanks to Jaren Jackson, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Johnson. We only need one more win to earn the top pack reward. Fingers crossed.

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.

Projected Assists minus Turnovers

Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+

NBA Fast Break Grid

Support us by:

  • Subscribing to our Newsletter to receive emails with Fast Break analysis

  • Following us on Twitter/X: @TomeCollective and @WittyCollector

  • Joining Tome+ for an enhanced versions of the Fast Break articles, All Day Prediction Game articles, additional resources, discounts, and future benefits

Aren’t able to pay a monthly fee? Currently, there is a promotion available for a one (1) month subscription in exchange for any one (1) WNBA or NBA Rare moment sent to TS: TomeCollective. This promotion ends on November 30, 2024.

Witty
Previous

NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 12
Next

NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 10