NBA Fast Break Run 7 | Day 3
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 30 Assists and 5 Steals to earn your win.
Overview:
Clint Capela was utilized in 47% of lineups for Fast Break Day 2 which required 45 rebounds, but he only accumulated six (6) rebounds when nine was the average needed. Based on his last 10 games, this is in line with expectation as he has only reached 9 rebounds two times in his last 10 games. But since so many were relying on a big rebounding day from Clint which did not materialize, he earns the not-so-coveted Fast Break Dud of the Day award. Conversely, Rudy Gobert was in 77% of lineups and delivered 14 big rebounds in the Timberwolves win over the Pelicans. For his performance, he earned the Fast Break Stud of the Day award. Keep in mind Rebounds will be the solo objective again on Day 12, but the goal is 50 instead of 45.
After two days of Run 7, we are up to 7,000+ participants in this run and a little under half earned a win on Day 2 (47%) and there are over 1,000 participants who are still perfect this round. In addition to the daily and run-based rewards, a perfect record would also net the 14-win pack. It’s Run 6 equivalent has a current EV of $421.07 with 3 packs unopened which hold the NBA Cup Steph Curry legendary, Evan Mobley Holo Icon legendary, and Tyrese Haliburton Holo Icon legendary. The Run 6 9-win pack has 364 unopened packs and all six legendaries remain unclaimed (along with 86 rares), but only 20 of the available moments have a current value above the $25 pack price. With Run 7 being lengthier and with higher thresholds for each tier, anticipate less participants reaching the 11 and 14-win marks, which means higher valued packs (both for flippers and rippers).
You can’t get to either of these tiers without wins, so let’s dive into today’s projections to help you put your best foot forward.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 3 requires five (5) players who will distribute 30.0 or more assists and accumulate 5.0 or more steals, which means your lineup will need to average 6.0 AST & 1.0 STL per player. Guards have a tendency to be elite at these two stats, but versatile players like Joker also excel in this space. You won’t see Joker in most lineups though as many with limited uses are saving him for more challenging days (like 12 or 14). Fortunately there are plenty of players in action today who can deliver both stat lines - Chris Paul being the most used at 84% and for good reason. The Assists objective is low enough where about 3 players who get you across the line while a handful of steal specialists can help you hit the 5.0 target. Although Assists have the higher numerical threshold, Steals will likely be the stat that leads to losses as it is the more unpredictable objective.
Little of Both: Nikola Jokic, Chris Paul
Givers: Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Haliburton, Chris Paul, Nikola Jokic
Takers: Tyrese Maxey, Dejounte Murray, Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jordan Poole, Nikola Jokic, Herbert Jones, Jamal Murray, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Kelly Oubre, Donovan Mitchell, Russell Westbrook, Kris Dunn, Chris Paul, Scottie Barnes, Norman Powell, Devin Vassell
Top Five (5) Players in FB Lineups: C. Paul (84%), J. Harden (69%), D. Murray (65%), T. Haliburton (56%), R. Westbrook (36%)
Looking Ahead:
Tomorrow, 5 blocks & 40 points in the paint are the two objectives; there are 16 teams in action
Objectives Breakdown (after today):
3x: 3PM
2x: PIP, BLK, 3PA, PTS, REB, AST
1x: OREB, FGA, FGM, STL
Considerations:
There are seven (7) teams with the most games remaining (7)
There are nine (9) teams with the least games remaining (5)
Denver, New Orleans, and Washington are playing the tail end of a back-to-back
After today, 3 of the 11 remaining days have a single objective & 8 of 11 have two objectives
Charlotte, Dallas, Memphis, New Orleans, New York, Toronto, and Utah’s last game this run is on Day 12
Day 11 has the least number of teams in action (10)
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected assists & steals according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 7 Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 25 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit
Milestone Reward: Reach 4, 7, 11, or 14 wins and each tier earns you a pack
4 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
7 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
11 wins: Fast Break pack
14 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 25 overall
1st Place: $5,000 Top Shot Credit
2nd Place: $2,500 Top Shot Credit
3rd Place: $1,000 Top Shot Credit
4-10th: $500 Top Shot Credit
11-25th: $250 Top Shot Credit
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective (updated for Run 7)
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (as of 01/03/2025)
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Run 7 Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
We swapped in Joker yesterday, but swapped Amen for Joker today when he was marked questionable due to illness and the move paid off as Thompson delivered 15 rebounds to help us earn our first win of this run. Today’s challenge will be securing steals while exceeding the assists threshold. Fingers crossed!
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.
Projected Assists
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Steals
Projected AST & STL
NBA Fast Break Grid
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