NBA Fast Break Historic | Run 1 | Day 8

Today’s Objective(s): 5 Steals & 3 Blocks

Overview:

As expected, yesterday was not a good day for Fast Break lineups as only 22% of lineups earned a win amongst the 15-game gauntlet. Today’s win rate should be higher, but there is uncertainty as to how much higher.

Tome+ members, we updated the dedicated data article for NBA Fast Break Historical edition, which includes the full data set of the 150 active players in the Historical mode, including their series average. This article also includes the top offenses and top defenses, which has an effect on outcomes each day.

Overview:

• Day: 8 of 10

• Objective(s): 5 Steals & 3 Blocks (1.0 STL & 0.6 BLK)

Top Player Options:

Thieves:

• S Tier (averaging 2.5+): Baron Davis, Ricky Rubio

• A Tier (averaging 2.0-2.4): Andre Miller, Rajon Rondo, Manu Ginobili, Derek Fisher, Gilbert Arenas, Clyde Drexler, Kenyon Martin, Terry Cummings, Jason Kidd

Shot Blockers:

• S Tier (averaging 3.0+): Mark Eaton, Tim Duncan, Shawn Bradley, Elton Brand

• A Tier (averaging 2.0-2.9): Andrei Kirilenko, Roy Hibbert, Dikembe Mutombo, Greg Oden, Alonzo Mourning, Hakeem Olajuwon, Ben Wallace, Serge Ibaka, Josh Smith

Accumulated 1+ STL AND Accumulated 1+ BLK: alphabetical order based on first name

• 7 of 7 Games (0): None

• 6 of 7 Games (1): Andrei Kirilenko

• 5 of 7 Games (10): Ben Wallace, Demarcus Cousins, Hakeem Olajuwon, John Wall, Josh Smith, Kenneth Faried, Marcus Camby, Michael Cooper, Shaun Livingston, Tracy McGrady

Top Five (5) Players in Pro Lineups: A. Kirilenko (60%) | J. Smith (41%) | S. Marion (40%) | G. Wallace (33%) | K. Martin (25%)

Upcoming Fast Break Objectives:

• Objectives Remaining (after today): REB, OREB, PTS, FGM

• Next Objective (tomorrow): 30 Rebounds & 8 Offensive Rebounds (6.0 REB & 1.6 OREB)

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected steals & blocks according to nbatopshot.com and aggregated data by Tome Collective, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on season averages, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the single data point is used to stack rank the players as there are no reliable projections for simulated games.

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Top Player Options for Fast Break:

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: nbatopshot.com & tomecollective.com, 2025.

Projected Steals

Player	Team	FB Rank STL	FB Avg STL	Car Avg Rank STL	Car Avg STL
Baron Davis	NOP	1	2.7	5	1.8
Ricky Rubio	MIN	2	2.6	5	1.8
Andre Miller	CLE	3	2.3	48	1.1
Rajon Rondo	BOS	3	2.3	14	1.5
Manu Ginobili	SAS	5	2.1	27	1.3
Derek Fisher	LAL	5	2.1	58	1
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	5	2.1	14	1.5
Clyde Drexler	POR	8	2	3	2
Kenyon Martin	BKN	8	2	34	1.2
Terry Cummings	MIL	8	2	58	1
Jason Kidd	DAL	8	2	4	1.9
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	12	1.9	20	1.4
Michael Cooper	LAL	12	1.9	34	1.2
Gerald Wallace	CHA	12	1.9	14	1.5
Kenneth Faried	DEN	15	1.7	111	0.7
Kurt Rambis	LAL	15	1.7	74	0.9
Tracy McGrady	HOU	15	1.7	34	1.2
Steve Francis	HOU	15	1.7	20	1.4
Tony Allen	MEM	15	1.7	20	1.4
Spud Webb	ATL	15	1.7	48	1.1
Muggsy Bogues	CHA	15	1.7	14	1.5
James Worthy	LAL	22	1.6	48	1.1
Eddie Jones	MIA	22	1.6	9	1.7
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	22	1.6	27	1.3
Anfernee Hardaway	ORL	22	1.6	14	1.5
Mark Price	CLE	22	1.6	34	1.2
Mike Bibby	SAC	22	1.6	48	1.1
Morris Peterson	TOR	22	1.6	74	0.9
Hakeem Olajuwon	HOU	29	1.4	5	1.8
Vince Carter	TOR	29	1.4	58	1
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	29	1.4	74	0.9
Paul Pierce	BOS	29	1.4	27	1.3
Trevor Ariza	HOU	29	1.4	20	1.4
Nick Collison	OKC	29	1.4	133	0.5
Dan Majerle	PHX	29	1.4	27	1.3
Terry Porter	POR	29	1.4	34	1.2
Jason Williams	MEM	29	1.4	34	1.2
Marcus Camby	DEN	38	1.3	58	1
Vlade Divac	SAC	38	1.3	48	1.1
DeMarcus Cousins	NOP	38	1.3	27	1.3
John Wall	WAS	38	1.3	11	1.6
Kevin Garnett	MIN	38	1.3	27	1.3
Michael Cage	LAC	38	1.3	74	0.9
Anderson Varejao	CLE	38	1.3	92	0.8
Austin Rivers	NOP	38	1.3	111	0.7
Shaun Livingston	OKC	38	1.3	111	0.7
Glenn Robinson	MIL	38	1.3	34	1.2
Metta World Peace	SAC	38	1.3	5	1.8
Kemba Walker	CHA	38	1.3	34	1.2
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	50	4	74	2.7

Projected Blocks

Player	Team	FB Rank BLK	FB Avg BLK	Car Avg Rank BLK	Car Avg BLK
Mark Eaton	UTA	1	3.7	1	3.5
Tim Duncan	SAS	2	3.3	9	2.2
Shawn Bradley	DAL	3	3	6	2.7
Elton Brand	LAC	3	3	16	1.7
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	5	2.9	11	1.8
Roy Hibbert	IND	5	2.9	16	1.7
Dikembe Mutombo	ATL	7	2.7	4	2.8
Greg Oden	POR	8	2.6	26	1.2
Alonzo Mourning	MIA	9	2.4	4	2.8
Hakeem Olajuwon	HOU	10	2.3	2	3.1
Ben Wallace	DET	10	2.3	10	1.9
Serge Ibaka	OKC	10	2.3	11	1.8
Josh Smith	ATL	13	2.1	11	1.8
Marcus Camby	DEN	14	1.9	8	2.3
David Robinson	SAS	14	1.9	3	3
Tyson Chandler	NOP	14	1.9	28	1.1
Vlade Divac	SAC	17	1.7	21	1.4
Dwight Howard	ORL	17	1.7	11	1.8
Arvydas Sabonis	POR	17	1.7	28	1.1
Joakim Noah	CHI	17	1.7	24	1.3
Rik Smits	IND	17	1.7	24	1.3
DeMarcus Cousins	NOP	22	1.6	28	1.1
LaMarcus Aldridge	SAS	22	1.6	28	1.1
Patrick Ewing	NYK	22	1.6	7	2.4
Andrew Bogut	GSW	25	1.4	20	1.5
Jermaine O'Neal	IND	25	1.4	11	1.8
Kevin McHale	BOS	25	1.4	16	1.7
Kendrick Perkins	OKC	25	1.4	28	1.1
Clyde Drexler	POR	29	1.3	48	0.7
Kenneth Faried	DEN	29	1.3	43	0.8
Kurt Rambis	LAL	29	1.3	67	0.5
John Wall	WAS	29	1.3	48	0.7
Shawn Marion	PHX	29	1.3	28	1.1
Shane Battier	MEM	29	1.3	37	0.9
Kevin Garnett	MIN	35	1.1	21	1.4
Brad Daugherty	CLE	35	1.1	48	0.7
Derrick Coleman	PHI	35	1.1	21	1.4
Bill Laimbeer	DET	35	1.1	37	0.9
Tracy McGrady	HOU	39	1	37	0.9
Grant Hill	DET	39	1	53	0.6
Robert Horry	LAL	39	1	37	0.9
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	39	1	43	0.8
Michael Cooper	LAL	43	0.9	53	0.6
Michael Cage	LAC	43	0.9	53	0.6
Anderson Varejao	CLE	43	0.9	53	0.6
Alex English	DEN	43	0.9	48	0.7
Karl Malone	UTA	43	0.9	43	0.8
Marcin Gortat	WAS	43	0.9	28	1.1
Danny Granger	IND	43	0.9	43	0.8
Andrea Bargnani	TOR	43	0.9	37	0.9

Projected STL & BLK

Player	Team	Ovr Rank	FB Rank STL	FB Avg STL	Car Avg Rank STL	Car Avg STL	FB Rank BLK	FB Avg BLK	Car Avg Rank BLK	Car Avg BLK
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	1	12	1.9	20	1.4	5	2.9	11	1.8
Hakeem Olajuwon	HOU	2	29	1.4	5	1.8	10	2.3	2	3.1
Clyde Drexler	POR	3	8	2	3	2	29	1.3	48	0.7
Kenneth Faried	DEN	4	15	1.7	111	0.7	29	1.3	43	0.8
Kurt Rambis	LAL	4	15	1.7	74	0.9	29	1.3	67	0.5
Marcus Camby	DEN	6	38	1.3	58	1	14	1.9	8	2.3
Vlade Divac	SAC	7	38	1.3	48	1.1	17	1.7	21	1.4
Tracy McGrady	HOU	8	15	1.7	34	1.2	39	1	37	0.9
Michael Cooper	LAL	9	12	1.9	34	1.2	43	0.9	53	0.6
DeMarcus Cousins	NOP	10	38	1.3	27	1.3	22	1.6	28	1.1
Kenyon Martin	BKN	11	8	2	34	1.2	51	0.7	28	1.1
Ben Wallace	DET	12	57	1.1	27	1.3	10	2.3	10	1.9
John Wall	WAS	13	38	1.3	11	1.6	29	1.3	48	0.7
Josh Smith	ATL	14	57	1.1	34	1.2	13	2.1	11	1.8
Steve Francis	HOU	15	15	1.7	20	1.4	51	0.7	75	0.4
Kevin Garnett	MIN	16	38	1.3	27	1.3	35	1.1	21	1.4
Shawn Bradley	DAL	17	75	1	127	0.6	3	3	6	2.7
James Worthy	LAL	18	22	1.6	48	1.1	51	0.7	48	0.7
Eddie Jones	MIA	18	22	1.6	9	1.7	51	0.7	53	0.6
Gerald Wallace	CHA	20	12	1.9	14	1.5	62	0.6	43	0.8
Baron Davis	NOP	21	1	2.7	5	1.8	72	0.4	75	0.4
Tony Allen	MEM	22	15	1.7	20	1.4	62	0.6	75	0.4
Andrew Bogut	GSW	23	57	1.1	127	0.6	25	1.4	20	1.5
Manu Ginobili	SAS	24	5	2.1	27	1.3	72	0.4	88	0.3
Vince Carter	TOR	25	29	1.4	58	1	51	0.7	53	0.6
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	25	29	1.4	74	0.9	51	0.7	67	0.5
Michael Cage	LAC	27	38	1.3	74	0.9	43	0.9	53	0.6
Anderson Varejao	CLE	27	38	1.3	92	0.8	43	0.9	53	0.6
Terry Cummings	MIL	29	8	2	58	1	72	0.4	67	0.5
Shawn Marion	PHX	30	57	1.1	14	1.5	29	1.3	28	1.1
Dwight Howard	ORL	31	75	1	74	0.9	17	1.7	11	1.8
Arvydas Sabonis	POR	31	75	1	92	0.8	17	1.7	28	1.1
Austin Rivers	NOP	33	38	1.3	111	0.7	51	0.7	103	0.2
Shaun Livingston	OKC	33	38	1.3	111	0.7	51	0.7	75	0.4
Grant Hill	DET	35	57	1.1	34	1.2	39	1	53	0.6
Robert Horry	LAL	35	57	1.1	48	1.1	39	1	37	0.9
Jason Kidd	DAL	37	8	2	4	1.9	83	0.3	88	0.3
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	38	22	1.6	27	1.3	72	0.4	53	0.6
David Robinson	SAS	39	88	0.9	20	1.4	14	1.9	3	3
Alex English	DEN	40	57	1.1	74	0.9	43	0.9	48	0.7
Joakim Noah	CHI	41	88	0.9	92	0.8	17	1.7	24	1.3
Glenn Robinson	MIL	42	38	1.3	34	1.2	62	0.6	53	0.6
Paul Pierce	BOS	43	29	1.4	27	1.3	72	0.4	53	0.6
Trevor Ariza	HOU	43	29	1.4	20	1.4	72	0.4	88	0.3
Nick Collison	OKC	43	29	1.4	133	0.5	72	0.4	67	0.5
Greg Oden	POR	46	104	0.7	140	0.4	8	2.6	26	1.2
Ricky Rubio	MIN	47	2	2.6	5	1.8	101	0	124	0.1
Andre Miller	CLE	48	3	2.3	48	1.1	101	0	103	0.2
Rajon Rondo	BOS	48	3	2.3	14	1.5	101	0	124	0.1
Derek Fisher	LAL	50	5	2.1	58	1	101	0	124	0.1

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