NBA Fast Break Historic | Run 1 | Day 6

Today’s Objective(s): 20 Assists & 3 Steals

Overview:

76% of yesterday’s Fast Break participants earned a win as 62 players sank 4 or more three points, which was a primary point of concern. There were also 57 players who exceeded the necessary 24.0 PTS per player (including 18 players who crested 30 points), so there were multiple paths to a win.

Today’s path to a win will feel easier so long as you have players who have shown their excellent distribution skills in this simulated format. Keep in mind each player is playing the full 36 minutes, so stats will inevitably be inflated relative to career averages. As today marks the halfway point in this run, be mindful of the remaining lineups, so you don’t find yourself without options toward the end. So long as you have a decent historical collection, you should be in good shape.

Note that players in this series may not be on the same team or in the lineup at all the next go round. Larry Bird, for example, will likely join the Celtics, which means there will be an odd player out.

Overview:

• Day: 6 of 10

• Objective(s): 20 Assists & 3 Steals (4.0 AST & 0.6 STL)

Top Player Options:

Distributors:

• S Tier (8+ AST): Tim Hardaway, Spud Webb, Jose Calderon, Jason Kidd, John Wall, Ricky Rubio, Rajon Rondo, Shaun Livingston

• A Tier (6-8 AST): Ty Lawson, Maurice Cheeks, Sam Cassell, Jason Williams, Stephon Marbury, Mike Bibby, Deron Williams, Walter Davis, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Muggsy Bogues, Terry Porter, Toni Kukoc, Lou Williams, Chauncey Billups, Mark Price, Scott Skiles

Thieves:

• S Tier (3+ STL): Ricky Rubio, Baron Davis

• A Tier (2-3 STL): Gilbert Arenas, Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Clyde Drexler, Gerald Wallace, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Michael Cooper, Steve Francis, Tracy McGrady, Terry Cummings, Kenyon Martin

Distributed 4+ AST & Accumulated 1+ STL: alphabetical order based on first name

• 5 of 5 Games (9): Andre Miller, Derek Fisher, Gilbert Arenas, Michael Cooper, Ricky Rubio, Shaun Livingston, Ty Lawson, Vince Carter, Walter Davis

• 4 of 5 Games (11): Allen Iverson, Andrei Kirilenko, Avery Johnson, Jarrett Jack, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Mike Bibby, Muggsy Bogues, Rajon Rondo, Scott Skiles, Toni Kukoc, Tracy McGrady

Top Five (5) Players in Pro Lineups: R. Rubio (59%) | R. Rondo (58%) | D. Williams (58%) | B. Davis (39%) | J. Wall (38%)

Upcoming Fast Break Objectives:

• Objectives Remaining (after today):

  • 2x: FGM

  • 1x: FGA, REB, OREB, BLK, PTS, STL

• Next Objective (tomorrow): 45 Field Goals Made & 90 Field Goal Attempts (9.0 FGM & 18.0 FGA)

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected field goals made & field goal attempts according to nbatopshot.com and aggregated data by Tome Collective, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on season averages, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the single data point is used to stack rank the players as there are no reliable projections for simulated games. This data file will be limited to tome+ members in the future, but it is currently available for all readers.

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Top Player Options for Fast Break:

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: nbatopshot.com & tomecollective.com, 2025.

Projected Assists

Player	Team	FB Rank AST	FB Avg AST	Car Avg Rank AST	Car Avg AST
Tim Hardaway	MIA	1	10.2	4	7.9
Spud Webb	ATL	2	9.8	26	5.2
Jose Calderon	TOR	2	9.8	18	5.7
Jason Kidd	DAL	4	8.8	2	8.8
John Wall	WAS	4	8.8	1	8.9
Ricky Rubio	MIN	6	8.4	7	7.4
Rajon Rondo	BOS	6	8.4	6	7.7
Shaun Livingston	OKC	8	8	63	3
Ty Lawson	DEN	9	7.8	16	5.8
Maurice Cheeks	PHI	9	7.8	11	6.6
Sam Cassell	MIL	9	7.8	16	5.8
Jason Williams	MEM	12	7.2	18	5.7
Stephon Marbury	NYK	12	7.2	5	7.8
Mike Bibby	SAC	14	7	22	5.4
Deron Williams	BKN	14	7	3	8.1
Walter Davis	PHX	16	6.8	45	3.6
Avery Johnson	SAS	16	6.8	24	5.3
Baron Davis	NOP	18	6.6	9	7.2
Muggsy Bogues	CHA	18	6.6	7	7.4
Terry Porter	POR	20	6.4	20	5.6
Toni Kukoc	CHI	21	6.2	42	3.7
Lou Williams	LAC	21	6.2	55	3.4
Chauncey Billups	DET	21	6.2	22	5.4
Mark Price	CLE	24	6	10	6.7
Scott Skiles	ORL	24	6	12	6.5
Blake Griffin	LAC	26	5.8	35	4.1
Chuck Person	IND	27	5.6	72	2.8
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	28	5.4	27	5.1
Michael Cooper	LAL	28	5.4	34	4.2
Andre Miller	CLE	30	5.2	13	6.2
Clyde Drexler	POR	30	5.2	20	5.6
Steve Francis	HOU	30	5.2	15	5.9
Allen Iverson	PHI	30	5.2	14	6.1
Jarrett Jack	NOP	34	5	32	4.4
Gordon Hayward	UTA	35	4.8	50	3.5
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	DEN	35	4.8	45	3.6
Danny Ainge	BOS	35	4.8	35	4.1
Dan Majerle	PHX	38	4.6	68	2.9
Manu Ginobili	SAS	38	4.6	40	3.8
Vince Carter	TOR	38	4.6	60	3.1
Monta Ellis	GSW	38	4.6	29	4.7
Vlade Divac	SAC	38	4.6	60	3.1
Jameer Nelson	ORL	38	4.6	28	5
Tracy McGrady	HOU	44	4.4	32	4.4
Josh Smith	ATL	44	4.4	60	3.1
Grant Hill	DET	44	4.4	35	4.1
Karl Malone	UTA	44	4.4	45	3.6
Joakim Noah	CHI	48	4.2	72	2.8
Brandon Roy	POR	48	4.2	29	4.7
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	50	4	74	2.7

Projected Steals

Player	Team	FB Rank STL	FB Avg STL	Car Avg Rank STL	Car Avg STL
Ricky Rubio	MIN	1	3.2	5	1.8
Baron Davis	NOP	1	3.2	5	1.8
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	3	2.8	14	1.5
Rajon Rondo	BOS	4	2.6	14	1.5
Andre Miller	CLE	5	2.4	48	1.1
Clyde Drexler	POR	6	2.2	3	2
Gerald Wallace	CHA	6	2.2	14	1.5
Jason Kidd	DAL	8	2	4	1.9
Mike Bibby	SAC	8	2	48	1.1
Michael Cooper	LAL	8	2	34	1.2
Steve Francis	HOU	8	2	20	1.4
Tracy McGrady	HOU	8	2	34	1.2
Terry Cummings	MIL	8	2	58	1
Kenyon Martin	BKN	8	2	34	1.2
Ty Lawson	DEN	15	1.8	48	1.1
Anfernee Hardaway	ORL	15	1.8	14	1.5
Kenneth Faried	DEN	15	1.8	111	0.7
Jason Williams	MEM	18	1.6	34	1.2
Walter Davis	PHX	18	1.6	34	1.2
Muggsy Bogues	CHA	18	1.6	14	1.5
Mark Price	CLE	18	1.6	34	1.2
Scott Skiles	ORL	18	1.6	92	0.8
Dan Majerle	PHX	18	1.6	27	1.3
Manu Ginobili	SAS	18	1.6	27	1.3
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	18	1.6	20	1.4
Derek Fisher	LAL	18	1.6	58	1
Ray Allen	MIL	18	1.6	48	1.1
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	18	1.6	74	0.9
Metta World Peace	SAC	18	1.6	5	1.8
Carlos Boozer	UTA	18	1.6	74	0.9
James Worthy	LAL	18	1.6	48	1.1
Andrew Bogut	GSW	18	1.6	127	0.6
Nick Collison	OKC	18	1.6	133	0.5
Hakeem Olajuwon	HOU	18	1.6	5	1.8
Morris Peterson	TOR	18	1.6	74	0.9
Tony Allen	MEM	18	1.6	20	1.4
John Wall	WAS	37	1.4	11	1.6
Shaun Livingston	OKC	37	1.4	111	0.7
Terry Porter	POR	37	1.4	34	1.2
Jarrett Jack	NOP	37	1.4	92	0.8
Vince Carter	TOR	37	1.4	58	1
Paul Pierce	BOS	37	1.4	27	1.3
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	37	1.4	27	1.3
Antoine Walker	BOS	37	1.4	34	1.2
Glenn Robinson	MIL	37	1.4	34	1.2
Drazen Petrovic	BKN	37	1.4	74	0.9
Michael Cage	LAC	37	1.4	74	0.9
Spud Webb	ATL	48	1.2	48	1.1
Maurice Cheeks	PHI	48	1.2	1	2.1
Avery Johnson	SAS	48	1.2	74	0.9

Projected AST & STL

Player	Team	Ovr Rank	FB Rank AST	FB Avg AST	Car Avg Rank AST	Car Avg AST	FB Rank STL	FB Avg STL	Car Avg Rank STL	Car Avg STL
Ricky Rubio	MIN	1	6	8.4	7	7.4	1	3.2	5	1.8
Jason Kidd	DAL	2	4	8.8	2	8.8	8	2	4	1.9
Rajon Rondo	BOS	3	6	8.4	6	7.7	4	2.6	14	1.5
Ty Lawson	DEN	4	9	7.8	16	5.8	15	1.8	48	1.1
John Wall	WAS	5	4	8.8	1	8.9	37	1.4	11	1.6
Mike Bibby	SAC	6	14	7	22	5.4	8	2	48	1.1
Jason Williams	MEM	7	12	7.2	18	5.7	18	1.6	34	1.2
Baron Davis	NOP	8	18	6.6	9	7.2	1	3.2	5	1.8
Spud Webb	ATL	9	2	9.8	26	5.2	48	1.2	48	1.1
Shaun Livingston	OKC	10	8	8	63	3	37	1.4	111	0.7
Walter Davis	PHX	11	16	6.8	45	3.6	18	1.6	34	1.2
Muggsy Bogues	CHA	12	18	6.6	7	7.4	18	1.6	14	1.5
Maurice Cheeks	PHI	13	9	7.8	11	6.6	48	1.2	1	2.1
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	14	28	5.4	27	5.1	3	2.8	14	1.5
Mark Price	CLE	15	24	6	10	6.7	18	1.6	34	1.2
Scott Skiles	ORL	15	24	6	12	6.5	18	1.6	92	0.8
Michael Cooper	LAL	17	28	5.4	34	4.2	8	2	34	1.2
Andre Miller	CLE	18	30	5.2	13	6.2	5	2.4	48	1.1
Clyde Drexler	POR	19	30	5.2	20	5.6	6	2.2	3	2
Avery Johnson	SAS	20	16	6.8	24	5.3	48	1.2	74	0.9
Terry Porter	POR	21	20	6.4	20	5.6	37	1.4	34	1.2
Steve Francis	HOU	22	30	5.2	15	5.9	8	2	20	1.4
Tim Hardaway	MIA	23	1	10.2	4	7.9	105	0.6	11	1.6
Toni Kukoc	CHI	24	21	6.2	42	3.7	48	1.2	58	1
Chuck Person	IND	25	27	5.6	72	2.8	48	1.2	111	0.7
Dan Majerle	PHX	26	38	4.6	68	2.9	18	1.6	27	1.3
Manu Ginobili	SAS	26	38	4.6	40	3.8	18	1.6	27	1.3
Sam Cassell	MIL	28	9	7.8	16	5.8	105	0.6	48	1.1
Jose Calderon	TOR	29	2	9.8	18	5.7	126	0.4	92	0.8
Allen Iverson	PHI	30	30	5.2	14	6.1	48	1.2	1	2.1
Jarrett Jack	NOP	31	34	5	32	4.4	37	1.4	92	0.8
Tracy McGrady	HOU	32	44	4.4	32	4.4	8	2	34	1.2
Stephon Marbury	NYK	33	12	7.2	5	7.8	105	0.6	34	1.2
Deron Williams	BKN	34	14	7	3	8.1	105	0.6	58	1
Vince Carter	TOR	35	38	4.6	60	3.1	37	1.4	58	1
Gordon Hayward	UTA	36	35	4.8	50	3.5	48	1.2	58	1
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	DEN	36	35	4.8	45	3.6	48	1.2	92	0.8
Monta Ellis	GSW	38	38	4.6	29	4.7	48	1.2	9	1.7
Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	39	50	4	74	2.7	18	1.6	20	1.4
Derek Fisher	LAL	39	50	4	68	2.9	18	1.6	58	1
Lou Williams	LAC	41	21	6.2	55	3.4	105	0.6	74	0.9
Chauncey Billups	DET	41	21	6.2	22	5.4	105	0.6	58	1
Anfernee Hardaway	ORL	43	55	3.8	29	4.7	15	1.8	14	1.5
Josh Smith	ATL	44	44	4.4	60	3.1	48	1.2	34	1.2
Ray Allen	MIL	45	55	3.8	55	3.4	18	1.6	48	1.1
Blake Griffin	LAC	46	26	5.8	35	4.1	105	0.6	92	0.8
Vlade Divac	SAC	47	38	4.6	60	3.1	76	1	48	1.1
Alex English	DEN	48	50	4	45	3.6	48	1.2	74	0.9
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	49	63	3.6	58	3.3	18	1.6	74	0.9
Metta World Peace	SAC	49	63	3.6	74	2.7	18	1.6	5	1.8

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