NBA Fast Break Run 13 | Day 4
Today’s Objective(s): 25 Assists & 5 Steals
Recap & Overview:
Although we had the highest win percentage this run so far (26%), that speaks more to how challenging this run has been to date considering the first and second days landed at 13% and 9% respectively. The objectives weren’t adjusted compared to previous runs either - the challenge has more to do with the days in which the objectives land and the performances of the players on the court. For example, if Three Pointers Made were on Day 2 instead of Day 1, Steph Curry’s massive 52 point performance which included twelve (12) three pointers would have led the majority to a win. Had the Points Scored day landed on Day 2 instead of yesterday, Joker’s 62 point showing would have also led the majority to a win. Instead, we are left second guessing our decisions as we wonder how typically reliable players come up short when we need them most when we aren’t able to secure the win.
With the double-overtime game on a back-to-back, Denver sat Joker (along with the rest of their starters unexpectedly), which created some chaos amongst lineups as he was utilized in over 40% of lineups. If you look at the most utilized players, he was still in the top five and included in 27% of lineups which effectively guaranteed a loss for those folks. Of the remaining four players, Tatum could only score 16 points for the 63% of Fast Breakers who trusted him, which earned him the Fast Break Dud of the Day award due to his underwhelming performance. For the 89% who started SGA, they were rewarded with a 33 point performance, which earned him the Fast Break Stud of the Day award. The primary culprits to the mounting losses on the day, however, were likely at the hands of Tatum & Joker.
We are three (3) days into this run and we are already down to 30 Fast Breakers who have impressively navigated the choppy waters of this run to secure a perfect three wins out of three days - compared to Run 12 where we were in the thousands midway through the series, which tapered off significantly thereafter. That downward trend has carried into Run 13 where over half the participants have yet to secure a win to date. Interestingly, the Pro Mode currently has 342 perfect records, which is widely viewed as more challenging due to the various daily limitations. There are still ten days remaining in this run, so there is still an opportunity to move up the overall rankings while securing some packs along the way. Let’s dive into the data and get that win today.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 4 requires five (5) players who will distribute 25.0 or more assists and accumulate 5.0 or more steals, which means your lineup will need to average 5.0 AST & 1.0 STL per player. Between the two, steals will likely be the objective that will determine whether you win today whereas assists will determine where you place overall. Both important, but you’ll need to cross the green line before the rankings matter.
Little of Both: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Distributors: LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jared Butler, Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry, D'Angelo Russell, Jamal Shead, Draymond Green
Thieves: Matisse Thybulle, Luka Doncic, Draymond Green, Quentin Grimes, Jimmy Butler, Toumani Camara, Keon Johnson, Ja Morant, Justin Edwards, Scottie Barnes
Top Five (5) Players in Classic Lineups: J. Butler (78%), D. Green (65%), J. Morant (59%), S. Barnes (56%), L. Doncic (53%)
Pro Mode Limitations: Metallic Gold Rare
Looking Ahead:
Tomorrow: 35 Points in the Paint & 5 Blocks will be the two objectives; 20 teams in action
Objectives frequency (after today):
2x: BLK, PIP, 3PM, PTS
1x: FGM, FGA, OREB, AST-TO, 3PA, AST, STL
Considerations:
Dallas, Denver, Houston, Orlando, & Utah have the least number of games remaining (5)
Golden State, LA Lakers, & Milwaukee have the most number of games this run (7)
Miami is playing the tail-end of a back-to-back
All teams will be active on Day 12 & Day 13
Day 8 only has 4 teams in action, but the objective is lower than usual
Day 6 & 11 only has 10 teams in action
There are four days where there are 20 or more teams in action
5 of 10 days this run will have a single objective (or resembles a single objective)
Pro mode has a different limitation each day; it also has different objectives compared to Classic
NBA Playoff Picture:
Eastern Conference: No changes to the top six and little risk of any falling out, but Detroit & Milwaukee will jockey for position. Indy has a chance to catch New York, but it’s looking less likely. Cleveland has a comfortable lead over Boston, so there is a chance both teams will rest or limit their starters down the stretch. Orlando’s win and Atlanta’s loss swapped their 7th & 8th positions, so they’ll likely push to the finish. With Miami’s win against Boston, they are within striking distance of jumping into the 7th or 8th position, also.
Western Conference: Denver’s loss dropped them to 4th & moved a static Lakers team to 3rd. Golden State won, so they moved up to 5th. Clippers won, so they moved up to 7th. Memphis’s loss dropped them to 8th, which bumped a static Minnesota team to 6th. Oklahoma City may rest their starters or limit their minutes down the stretch. Houston may follow suit once they secure the 2nd seed. Dallas is in good position to maintain the 9th position, but Sacramento and Phoenix are battling for the last play-in spot.
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected assists & steals according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 13 Classic Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 250
Milestone Reward: Reach 4, 7, 11, or 13 wins and each tier earns you a pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 1,500 overall to receive Top Shot Packs and/or Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Run 13 Pro Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 100 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit
Run Reward: Place in the top 100 overall to receive Top Shot Packs and/or Top Shot Credit
Additional Links & Resources:
nbatopshot.com/fastbreak - set your lineup
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective (updated for Run 13)
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices
NBA version updated as of Mar. 25th; WNBA version updated as of April 2nd
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Run 13 Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
With Joker (and the rest of the Denver starters) sitting out today, we subbed in Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard. As Tatum & Miles underperformed, the swap worked in our favor and barely gave us the win. With Walker Kessler off the injured list, we added him to Day 5 to increase our chances at hitting the block objective. We also moved Joker & KAT to Day 12 (assuming they don’t sit out).
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2025.
Projected Assists
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Projected Steals
Projected AST & STL
NBA Fast Break Grid
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