NBA Fast Break Run 11 | Day 11
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 25 Assists & 5 Steals to earn your win.
Recap & Overview:
As expected, 90% of Fast Break participants yesterday walked away with a win considering the low thresholds. Of the top players utilized, Pascal Siakam had a monster day of 22 points in the paint along with 2 offensive rebounds, which earned him the Fast Break Stud of the Day award. On the other hand, there weren’t any clear underperformers, so we have another day this run where we don’t have a Dud.
Overall, we’ll trending toward a run where we’ll see more perfect records than we’ve seen in past runs, which means those packs will be watered down. There will be a trickle down effect, so the 11-win, 7-win, and 3-win packs will also have a lower chance at a big rip. How does Top Shot “fix” this? They shouldn’t. Had these objectives been set for the past few runs, we would have seen at least a couple days where less than 10% earned a win. This run, there were a higher than normal series of outperformers that carried many lineups. They could always bring back assists minus turnovers and/or +/- (which haven’t been included in three straight runs) to help separate the oil from water, but who wants that? Dapper has been keen on feedback as demonstrated by the Paul Pierce moments minting (likely to accommodate for the rising interest from NBA promotion), but subsequent decision to burn based on the backlash.
There are only three days remaining in this run and the next run will likely span 13 days also. As we inch closer to the playoffs, you’ll want to ensure you have the moments necessary to carry you through the later rounds. Also, Top Shot may bring back the trade-in feature, which uncovers top moments from each round. Excited for this year’s playoffs as there are some teams playing at an exceptional level. There is no clear-cut favorite to win it all, although Cleveland is looking to play that part. Before we reach the 2025 NBA Playoffs, let’s refocus on today’s objectives.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 11 requires five (5) players who will distribute 25.0 or more assists & accumulate 5.0 steals, which means your lineup will need to average 5.0 AST & 1.0 STL per player. The thresholds are low today as two big assist days could cover the first objective. The more volatile of the two are steals, so you’ll want players who have a high probability of accumulating steals. As the top five players utilized today are included on a high percentage of lineups, those players gaining steals will lead to a high number of winners today. Rankings of winners, though, will be determined by assists.
Little of Both: Tyrese Haliburton, Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Draymond Green, Ja Morant, Damian Lillard
Distributors: Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham, Chris Paul, Tyrese Haliburton, Ja Morant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard, D'Angelo Russell, Stephen Curry, Tyler Herro
Thieves: Cason Wallace, Tari Eason, Alex Caruso, Nikola Jokic, Fred VanVleet, Jose Alvarado, Ausar Thompson, Tyrese Haliburton, Jamal Murray, Andrew Nembhard
Top Five (5) Players in Classic Lineups: C. Paul (84%), T. Haliburton (57%), J. Morant (57%), R. Westbrook (45%), F. VanVleet (35%)
Pro Mode Limitations: N/A
Looking Ahead:
Tomorrow: 40 PIP & 5 BLK will be the two objectives; 16 teams in action
Objectives frequency (after today): FGA, BLK, FGM, PIP
Considerations:
Eighteen (18) teams have the least number of games remaining (2)
Twelve (12) teams have the most number of games remaining (3)
Boston, Denver, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, & San Antonio are playing the tail-end game of a back-to-back today
Day 13 has the most teams in action (20+), so your lineup options will be the most expansive
1 of the remaining 3 days will have a single objective (or resembles a single objective)
Pro mode has additional limitations on Day 13 (For the Win Rare)
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected assists & steals according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 11 Classic Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 435 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Milestone Reward: Reach 4, 7, 11, or 13 wins and each tier earns you a pack
4, 7, & 11 wins: One (1) Fast Break Pack (per tier)
13 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 1,500 overall to receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Run 11 Pro Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 435 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit
Run Reward: Place in the top 1,500 overall to receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit
Additional Links & Resources:
nbatopshot.com/fastbreak - set your lineup
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective (updated for Run 11)
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices
NBA version updated as of Mar. 12th; WNBA version updated as of Feb. 10th
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Run 11 Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
Sabonis was iffy yesterday so we didn’t want to take the chance (he ended up not playing). We went ahead and adjusted the rest of our lineups also including the inclusion of Russell Westbrook on the assist/steal day. We have three wins to go and there’s I think we have a decent chance of getting there.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2025.
Projected Assists
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Steals
Projected AST & STL
NBA Fast Break Grid
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March 2025 Promotions (3):
Send any rare NBA or WNBA Top Shot moment to TS: TomeCollective for two (2) months of access to tome+.
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