NBA Fast Break Run 11 | Day 5
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 5 Blocks & 5 Steals to earn your win.
Recap & Overview:
As expected, yesterday had the lowest win rate of this series, but it wasn’t as bad as it was looking going into the final game of the day. We landed at a 49% win rate and it was thanks to a handful of players who outperformed their projections. Steph took care of business and nailed four (4) three pointers out of 15 attempts, but Jayson Tatum made six (6) out of 16 attempts to earn the Fast Break Stud of the Day. Honorable mention goes to Jordan Poole, who has been quite reliable for Fast Break. With overall underperformance, there will inevitably be players who contributed to those losses. Yesterday, those players were both Malik Beasley and Derrick White, who both made a single three pointer. Just one. These two are splitting the Fast Break Dud of the Day award. Honorable mention goes to Trey Murphy who made zero three pointers.
With today’s objective focused on 5 blocks & 5 steals and tomorrow’s objective being 125 points scored, the number of perfect records will shrink, but the severity of the drop will depend on how badly the top five utilized players perform. Keep in mind the legendary & rare rewards in each tier is pre-defined, so the number of winners in each tier will determine how valuable the pack will be. Regardless, wins are wins and people enjoy winning. At this point, it feels like Dapper has found their sweet spot in terms of objectives and they’ll receive less blame for how “easy” or how “hard” each run will be. They also now have flexibility in pro mode to make things more interesting with badge requirements without establishing an impossible objective. However, as they continue to test and tinker, anticipate “hard” objectives like AST-TO & +/- to eventually return. Good for rewards if you earn the win; not good for enjoyment - but there is a healthy balance needed. Considering the early tip (1:00PM ET | 5:00PM UTC), let’s dive in.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 5 requires five (5) players who will accumulate 5.0 or more blocks and 5.0 or more steals, which means your lineup will need to average 1.0 BLK & 1.0 STL per player. These two stats are infrequently correlated and there aren’t many players who can consistently deliver both objectives. For today, there’s only one - Chet Holmgren. You’ll likely employ a moneyball approach where you identify players who excel in one stat or the other. Should they also gain both stats, that’s a plus but not an expectation. The blocks and steals mix also increases the probability of falling short by one, which is always max pain. Generate the best lineup you’re able and cross those fingers that you’ve selected a player that far exceeds their projections.
Little of Both: Chet Holmgren
Shot Blockers: Chet Holmgren, Donovan Clingan, Brook Lopez, Zach Edey, Evan Mobley, Ivica Zubac, Jalen Duren
Thieves: Kris Dunn, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ausar Thompson, Kelly Oubre, Nikola Jokic, Jalen Williams, James Harden, Toumani Camara, Keon Ellis, Kawhi Leonard, Alex Caruso, Zion Williamson, Jaden McDaniels, De'Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, Jose Alvarado, Devin Vassell, Quentin Grimes, Donte DiVincenzo, Damian Lillard
Top Five (5) Players in Classic Lineups: B. Lopez (79%), E. Mobley (52%), J. McDaniels (35%), K. Durant (34%), J. Williams (21%)
Pro Mode Limitations: N/A
Looking Ahead:
Tomorrow, 125 PTS will be the single objective; 24 teams in action
Objectives frequency (after today):
2x: PIP, FGM, AST
1x: REB, PTS, OREB, FGA, 3PM, 3PA, BLK, STL
Considerations:
Eight (8) teams have the least number of games remaining (4)
Six (6) teams have the most number of games remaining (6)
Detroit, Milwaukee, & New Orleans are playing the tail-end game of a back-to-back today
Day 7 (Mar 11th) & Day 9 (Mar 13th) have the least number of teams in action (8 & 10 respectively), so your lineup options will be more limited on these days
Day 6, 10, & 13 have the most teams in action (20+), so your lineup options will be the most expansive
Boston’s last game this run lands on Day 11
5 of the remaining 9 days will have a single objective (or resembles a single objective)
Assists minus turnovers & +/- are not included as objectives again
Pro mode has additional limitations on Day 6 (TopShot Debut), Day 8 (Throwdown Rare), Day 10 (Metallic Gold Rare), & Day 13 (For the Win Rare)
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected blocks & steals according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 11 Classic Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 435 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Milestone Reward: Reach 4, 7, 11, or 13 wins and each tier earns you a pack
4, 7, & 11 wins: One (1) Fast Break Pack (per tier)
13 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 1,500 overall to receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Additional Links & Resources:
nbatopshot.com/fastbreak - set your lineup
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective (updated for Run 11)
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices
NBA version updated as of Feb. 27th; WNBA version updated as of Feb. 10th
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Run 11 Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
We ran into our first loss of the season. Trey Murphy’s goose egg was too much to overcome unfortunately. Onward to Day 5, where we look for our 4th win of the series. We are four wins away from our primary objective and seven wins away from our stretch goal. The latter is going to be more difficult as we only have room for one additional loss.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2025.
Projected Blocks
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Steals
Projected BLK & STL
NBA Fast Break Grid
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