NBA Fast Break Run 8 | Day 1
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 20 Assists and 15 Three Pointers Made to earn your win.
Overview:
As one Fast Break run ends, another begins. There are some notable changes to this run compared to the last as there are three (3) less days in this run, which means you have less room for error each day. It also means your collection is not stretched as far, so you’ll have ample opportunity and flexibility with your lineups…most days. Another meaningful change is the higher number of winners for both daily and run-based rewards. Also considering there are five (5) days with 10 or fewer teams in action, it’ll be prudent to plan ahead so you aren’t stuck without players for lineups on these collection straining days.
As the game masters tinker with daily objectives, rewards, etc., it’ll be interesting to see whether there is more engagement for Fast Break based on higher per person rewards or more volume of winners (even if the payout is minimal). The high watermark for Fast Break participation was north of 9,000 - seeing a higher volume of participants would be a vote of confidence in the Run 8 reward structure (more winners; lower payout) vs. Run 7 (higher payout; less winners). Regardless of your preference, starting this run with a win would be ideal. Let’s dig into the numbers.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 1 requires five (5) players who will accumulate 20.0 or more assists and sink 15.0 or more three pointers, which means your lineup will need to average 4.0 AST & 3.0 3PM per player. There are a handful of players who can get you both stats, but three pointers will likely be the determining factor as to whether you win today or not. You can focus on the players who can deliver on both objectives and/or moneyball it and focus on players who are more proficient in one category or another. For example, Norman Powell & Jalen Green have been shooting confidently from outside the arc, but they both have a low volume of assists. Alternatively, Brunson & Ja have averaged over 7.0 assists per game over their last 10 games, but have had less than 2.0 three pointers over this time same timeframe. Regardless of your approach, the fewer games this run means less room for error.
Little of Both: LaMelo Ball, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Anthony Edwards
Distributors: Trae Young, James Harden, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, LaMelo Ball, Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Isaiah Collier, Devin Booker, Fred VanVleet, Stephen Curry, Keyonte George, Josh Giddey, Josh Hart, Alperen Sengun
Outside Snipers: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Norman Powell, Stephen Curry, Jalen Green, Trey Murphy, Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum, Keyonte George, James Harden
Top Five (5) Players in FB Lineups: S. Curry (73%), L. Ball (71%), T. Young (64%), J. Harden (36%), C. Cunningham (27%)
Looking Ahead:
Tomorrow, 40 points in the paint & 35 rebounds are the two objectives; there are 14 teams in action
Objectives Breakdown (after today):
3x: REB
2x: PTS, PIP, 3PM
1x: FGM, FGA, BLK, STL, +/-, OREB, 3PA, AST
Considerations:
The top prizes have dropped in value, but the number of winners has increased significantly (435 daily; 1,500 overall)
Assists minus turnovers is missing again this run, but +/- has returned (Day 9)
Indiana & San Antonio have the least number of games this run (3) and will be playing two games in Paris, France during this run
Atlanta & Cleveland have the most number of games this run (7)
Day 7 only have two (2) teams in action, so plan around this date to avoid being stuck without options
Day 6, 8, & 10 have 20+ teams in action (10+ games)
Milwaukee’s last game is on Day 9
Of the 11 days in this run, five have 10 or fewer teams in action
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected assists & three pointers made according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 8 Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 435 each day will receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, 9, or 11 wins and each tier earns you a pack
3, 6, & 9 wins: One (1) Fast Break Pack (per tier)
11 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 1,500 overall to receive varying amounts of Top Shot Credit (refer to graphic below)
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (update in process)
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Run 8 Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
Fresh start. Fresh opportunity to reach that 9-win reward which is a stretch goal with only commons. We only have two “bad” days available, so there’s little room for error.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.
Projected Assists
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Three Pointers Made
Projected AST & 3PM
NBA Fast Break Grid
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January 2025 Promotions (3):
Send any rare NBA or WNBA Top Shot moment to TS: TomeCollective for a month access to tome+.
Send any legendary NBA or WNBA Top Shot moment to TS: TomeCollective for lifetime access to tome+.
Be a paid subscriber as of tome+ as of January 31, 2025 and you’ll be airdropped a random serial from the updated Tome Collective Collection on flowty.
