NBA Fast Break Run 5 | Day 1
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 35 Field Goals Made to earn your win.
Overview:
Fresh Fast Break Run means fresh slate of available players you can choose from. Run 5 poses some unique challenges considering the Emirates NBA Cup games on Day 1, 2, 5 & 8. As the series moves along, check back with this newsletter as we’ll look ahead for projections on those days, so you can adjust your plans accordingly. Each NBA Cup participant will have between 3-5 games, so elimination means one or two less games on the schedule this run.
Run 5 will mirror volatility we experience during the playoffs as later games are available based on outcomes in the early part of the series, which means your lineup options on Day 5 & 8 will either hinder or expand your options later in the series. Keep in mind the top prize are two tickets, hotel, & airfare to the NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco, CA on February 16th.
Did you know you can purchase a VIP NFT to attend the next (3) three NBA All-Star Games? This 1-of-1 for each NBA team was created in 2022 and includes two tickets in the lower bowl for all ASG events, meet & greet, invite to an NBA reception, VIP merch bag, an NBA All-Star jersey, behind the scenes tour, & on-court photos (snapshot as of January 1, 2025 for this year’s All-Star Game). Current low ask is about $35,000. Too rich for my blood, but it may be worth the spend for someone in exchange for the unique experience & access. Go to the nbatopshot.com (or via the app), select the Marketplace, and scroll to the right under VIP NFT.
If you’re like me and your likeliest path to attending an NBA All-Star Game is this Fast Break Run, then scroll further for today’s projections & stats.
Emirates NBA Cup Games (Fast Break Day 1):
(4) Orlando @ (1) Milwaukee
(4) Dallas @ (1) Oklahoma City
Emirates NBA Cup Games (Fast Break Day 2):
(3) Atlanta @ (2) New York
(3) Golden State @ (2) Houston
December Promotions:
In celebration of our re-brand, we will have a series of promotions throughout December 2024:
We are giving away one (1) NBA League Pass at the end of Fast Break Run 4 (US only based on NBA League Pass promotion limitation) or $50.00 flowty.io shopping spree as an alternative option. All active tome+ subscribers as of December 11, 2024 will be eligible.
Beginning today, if you subscribe to tome+ and your order number ends in either a zero or a five (ex: #110, #115, #120), you’ll receive a Rare NBA Top Shot moment of your choosing valued up to $10.00 (valid through December 31, 2024).
If you own a ‘Tome Society’ NFT on flowty.io, you can sign up for one month of tome+ in exchange for one (1) 2024-2025 rookie moment. Note: these NFTs will be replaced in the future with ‘Tome Collective’ art via an airdrop.
Want an alternative option for a tome+ membership? Follow @TomeCollective on X for upcoming promotions. Otherwise, check back next month when we bring back our ‘Moments for Tome+’ promotion.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 1 requires five (5) players who will make 35 or more field goals, which means your lineup will need to average 7.0 FGM per player. This one is straightforward, but your player options are limited. Look ahead at the upcoming days/objectives and work back toward Day 1. Balance will be key based on your collection as no team has more than five games over the twelve days of this run.
Shot Makers: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Jalen Williams, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard
Top Five (5) Players in FB Lineups: SGA (79%), K. Irving (76%), G. Antetokounmpo (62%), L. Doncic (62%), D. Lillard (58%)
Objective(s):
Tomorrow, 12 three pointers made and 20 assists will be the two objectives and there are only four teams in NBA Cup action
Remaining objectives after today:
3x: 3PM
2x: AST, REB, PTS, PIP
1x: OREB, BLK, FTM, STL, FGA, FGM
Considerations:
Day 1 & 2 are NBA Cup games, which will dictate the four teams playing on Day 5, which will then determine the two teams playing on Day 8
Day 8 will only have two (2) teams in action, which we won’t know until Day 5
Day 1, 2, & 5 will only have four (4) teams in action
Day 3, 10, & 12 will only have six (6) teams in action
Every team will play between 3-5 games, so your collection will be stretched further than the past two runs
50% of Run 5 will have a single objective, which makes for simpler planning
Assists minus Turnovers and +/- objectives are not included in this run, but will likely return next run
Plan around Day 12 as it requires the most divergent stats of this run - points in the paint & three pointers made
There are no games scheduled for December 18th
December 19th is a big day for returns from injury including (tentatively) Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson, & others
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected field goals made according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Run 5 Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 100 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack
Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, 9, or 12 wins and each tier earns you a pack
3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
6 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
9 wins: Fast Break pack
12 wins: Perfect Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 500 overall
Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco, CA including airfare and hotel
Rank 2-500: Spendable credit at varying values
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective (updated for Run 5)
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (as of 12/05/2024)
Tome Collective’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as the Tome Collective account participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
Aiming for a better result than Run 4 (5 wins), but stretch goal is 9 wins using only commons. Day 5 & 8 will need to be adjusted based on the Emirates NBA Cup outcomes. For example, if Golden State is eliminated before the Finals, Steph could be used on Day 11 where points scored are needed.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.
Projected Field Goals Made
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
NBA Fast Break Grid
Support us by:
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Joining Tome+ for an enhanced versions of the Fast Break articles, All Day Prediction Game articles, additional resources, discounts, and future benefits
Aren’t able to pay a monthly fee? Check back next month when we bring back the ‘Moment for Subscription’ offer. If, however, you own a Tome NFT on flowty.io, you can sign up for one month of tome+ in exchange for one (1) 2024-2025 rookie moment, which can be sent to TS: TomeCollective. This promotion ends on December 31, 2024.
