NBA Fast Break Historic | Run 1 | Day 5

Today’s Objective(s): 120 Points Scored & 20 Three Pointers Made

Overview:

With today’s objectives, the high points threshold and higher than normal three pointers will feel like an impossible day ahead, but there is hope through the uncertainty. Interestingly, there are a number of players who have been lights out from outside the arc and these same players have exceeded the required threshold on a consistent basis.

Considering both objectives have the opportunity to derail your entire lineup, you’ll want to lean on players who are capable of contributing for both points and three pointers. As career averages have become less relevant, we removed that from the equation to determine rankings, but career averages are still reflected in the data tables.

Using this information, hopefully the path to a win is a clearer one.

Overview:

• Day: 5 of 10

• Objective(s): 120 Points Scored & 20 Three Pointers Made (24.0 PTS & 4.0 3PM)

Top Player Options:

Scorer & Outside Sniper: weighted averaged; ranked

• S Tier: Danny Granger, Michael Redd, Andrea Bargnani, Dominique Wilkins, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Paul Pierce, Danilo Gallinari

• A Tier: Chauncey Billups, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson, Vince Carter, Brandon Roy, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Gilbert Arenas, Dirk Nowitzki, Dan Majerle, Toni Kukoc, Isaiah Rider, Antoine Walker, Steve Francis, Derek Fisher, Antawn Jamison, Tim Hardaway, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, John Wall

Scored 24+ PTS & Sank 4+ 3PM: alphabetical order based on first name

• 4 of 4 Games (6): Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Danny Granger, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Michael Redd, Tracy McGrady

• 3 of 4 Games (16): Allen Iverson, Brandon Roy, Chauncey Billups, Derek Fisher, Dirk Nowitzki, Dominique Wilkins, Gilbert Arenas, Gordon Hayward, Luol Deng, Paul Pierce, Robert Horry, Shawn Marion, Tim Hardaway, Toni Kukoc, Ty Lawson, Vince Carter

Top Five (5) Players in Pro Lineups: R. Allen (57%) | K. Walker (47%) | M. Redd (40%) | J. Richardson (31%) | P. Pierce (30%)

Upcoming Fast Break Objectives:

• Objectives Remaining (after today):

  • 2x: FGM, STL

  • 1x: AST, FGA, REB, OREB, BLK, PTS

• Next Objective (tomorrow): 20 Assists & 3 Steals (4.0 AST & 0.6 STL)

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected points scored & three pointers made according to nbatopshot.com and aggregated data by Tome Collective, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on season averages, which is stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the single data point is used to stack rank the players as there are no reliable projections for simulated games. This data file will be limited to tome+ members in the future, but it is currently available for all readers.

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Top Player Options for Fast Break:

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: nbatopshot.com & tomecollective.com, 2025.

Projected Points Scored

Player	Team	FB Rank PTS	FB Avg PTS	Car Avg Rank PTS	Car Avg PTS
Allen Iverson	PHI	1	36.5	1	25.8
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	2	34.8	3	24.9
Danny Granger	IND	3	32.5	54	16.3
Andrea Bargnani	TOR	4	32	79	14.3
Paul Pierce	BOS	5	31.5	11	19.7
Michael Redd	MIL	6	31.3	19	19
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	7	30.8	8	20.7
DeMarcus Cousins	NOP	7	30.8	17	19.1
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	DEN	9	30.3	74	14.6
Danilo Gallinari	OKC	10	30	76	14.5
Brandon Roy	POR	11	29.8	23	18.8
Clyde Drexler	POR	12	28.5	10	20.5
Tracy McGrady	HOU	12	28.5	16	19.2
Blake Griffin	LAC	14	28.3	24	18.7
Isaiah Rider	MIN	15	27.8	50	16.7
Chauncey Billups	DET	15	27.8	63	15.2
Antoine Walker	BOS	17	27.5	37	17.7
Vince Carter	TOR	17	27.5	46	16.9
Kemba Walker	CHA	19	27.3	14	19.3
James Worthy	LAL	20	26.8	39	17.6
Antawn Jamison	WAS	21	26.5	26	18.5
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	22	26.3	12	19.6
Alex English	DEN	23	26	5	21.2
Chris Bosh	TOR	23	26	14	19.3
Larry Johnson	CHA	23	26	57	16.1
Kevin Martin	SAC	26	25.8	43	17
Gordon Hayward	UTA	26	25.8	68	14.9
Toni Kukoc	CHI	26	25.8	102	11.8
Karl Malone	UTA	29	25.3	2	25
Luol Deng	CHI	29	25.3	68	14.9
Steve Francis	HOU	31	25	37	17.7
Tim Hardaway	MIA	31	25	43	17
Josh Smith	ATL	31	25	83	13.9
Dan Majerle	PHX	31	25	107	11.4
Serge Ibaka	OKC	35	24.8	99	11.9
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	36	24.5	47	16.8
John Wall	WAS	37	24.3	24	18.7
Peja Stojakovic	SAC	37	24.3	47	16.8
Derek Fisher	LAL	39	24	132	8.1
Chuck Person	IND	40	23.8	73	14.7
Glen Rice	MIA	41	23.5	30	18.3
Deron Williams	BKN	41	23.5	55	16.2
Ty Lawson	DEN	41	23.5	99	11.9
Mark Price	CLE	44	23.3	63	15.2
Terry Porter	POR	44	23.3	96	12.2
Shawn Marion	PHX	46	23	66	15.1
Ben Gordon	CHI	46	23	68	14.9
LaMarcus Aldridge	SAS	48	22.5	19	19
Jason Kidd	DAL	48	22.5	91	12.5
Zach Randolph	MEM	50	22.3	47	16.8

Projected Three Pointers Made

Player	Team	FB Rank 3PM	FB Avg 3PM	Car Avg Rank 3PM	Car Avg 3PM
Danny Granger	IND	1	7.3	12	1.7
Michael Redd	MIL	2	6.8	12	1.7
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	DEN	2	6.8	67	0.8
Dan Majerle	PHX	4	6.5	28	1.4
Chauncey Billups	DET	5	6.3	8	1.8
Gordon Hayward	UTA	5	6.3	35	1.3
Ray Allen	MIL	7	6	1	2.3
Andrea Bargnani	TOR	7	6	47	1.1
Derek Fisher	LAL	7	6	53	1
Vince Carter	TOR	10	5.8	24	1.5
Trevor Ariza	HOU	11	5.5	28	1.4
Tracy McGrady	HOU	11	5.5	47	1.1
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	11	5.5	74	0.7
Kemba Walker	CHA	14	5.3	2	2.2
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	14	5.3	6	1.9
Danilo Gallinari	OKC	14	5.3	8	1.8
Paul Pierce	BOS	14	5.3	15	1.6
Jason Williams	MEM	14	5.3	24	1.5
Toni Kukoc	CHI	14	5.3	60	0.9
Steve Francis	HOU	14	5.3	60	0.9
Ty Lawson	DEN	14	5.3	67	0.8
JJ Redick	LAC	22	5	4	2.1
Dennis Scott	ORL	22	5	8	1.8
Jamal Crawford	NYK	22	5	12	1.7
Chuck Person	IND	22	5	35	1.3
Brandon Roy	POR	22	5	53	1
Shawn Marion	PHX	22	5	74	0.7
Robert Horry	LAL	22	5	74	0.7
Jason Richardson	GSW	29	4.8	6	1.9
Tim Hardaway	MIA	29	4.8	8	1.8
Joe Johnson	BKN	29	4.8	24	1.5
Jason Kidd	DAL	29	4.8	28	1.4
Manu Ginobili	SAS	29	4.8	28	1.4
Allen Iverson	PHI	29	4.8	47	1.1
Kyle Korver	PHI	35	4.5	5	2
Antoine Walker	BOS	35	4.5	24	1.5
Isaiah Rider	MIN	35	4.5	43	1.2
Latrell Sprewell	GSW	35	4.5	43	1.2
John Wall	WAS	35	4.5	53	1
Josh Smith	ATL	35	4.5	83	0.6
Mike Miller	MEM	41	4.3	15	1.6
Eddie Jones	MIA	41	4.3	15	1.6
Mark Price	CLE	41	4.3	28	1.4
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	41	4.3	35	1.3
Antawn Jamison	WAS	41	4.3	47	1.1
Terry Porter	POR	41	4.3	53	1
Kevin Martin	SAC	47	4	15	1.6
Allan Houston	NYK	47	4	15	1.6
Baron Davis	NOP	47	4	15	1.6
Michael Finley	DAL	47	4	35	1.3

Projected PTS & 3PM

Player	Team	Ovr Rank	FB Rank PTS	FB Avg PTS	Car Avg Rank PTS	Car Avg PTS	FB Rank 3PM	FB Avg 3PM	Car Avg Rank 3PM	Car Avg 3PM
Danny Granger	IND	1	3	32.5	54	16.3	1	7.3	12	1.7
Michael Redd	MIL	2	6	31.3	19	19	2	6.8	12	1.7
Andrea Bargnani	TOR	3	4	32	79	14.3	7	6	47	1.1
Dominique Wilkins	ATL	4	2	34.8	3	24.9	11	5.5	74	0.7
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	DEN	5	9	30.3	74	14.6	2	6.8	67	0.8
Paul Pierce	BOS	6	5	31.5	11	19.7	14	5.3	15	1.6
Chauncey Billups	DET	7	15	27.8	63	15.2	5	6.3	8	1.8
Danilo Gallinari	OKC	8	10	30	76	14.5	14	5.3	8	1.8
Tracy McGrady	HOU	9	12	28.5	16	19.2	11	5.5	47	1.1
Allen Iverson	PHI	10	1	36.5	1	25.8	29	4.8	47	1.1
Vince Carter	TOR	11	17	27.5	46	16.9	10	5.8	24	1.5
Brandon Roy	POR	12	11	29.8	23	18.8	22	5	53	1
Kemba Walker	CHA	13	19	27.3	14	19.3	14	5.3	2	2.2
Gordon Hayward	UTA	14	26	25.8	68	14.9	5	6.3	35	1.3
Gilbert Arenas	WAS	15	22	26.3	12	19.6	14	5.3	6	1.9
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	16	7	30.8	8	20.7	41	4.3	35	1.3
Dan Majerle	PHX	17	31	25	107	11.4	4	6.5	28	1.4
Toni Kukoc	CHI	18	26	25.8	102	11.8	14	5.3	60	0.9
Isaiah Rider	MIN	19	15	27.8	50	16.7	35	4.5	43	1.2
Antoine Walker	BOS	20	17	27.5	37	17.7	35	4.5	24	1.5
Steve Francis	HOU	21	31	25	37	17.7	14	5.3	60	0.9
Derek Fisher	LAL	22	39	24	132	8.1	7	6	53	1
Clyde Drexler	POR	23	12	28.5	10	20.5	52	3.8	67	0.8
Antawn Jamison	WAS	24	21	26.5	26	18.5	41	4.3	47	1.1
Tim Hardaway	MIA	25	31	25	43	17	29	4.8	8	1.8
Ty Lawson	DEN	26	41	23.5	99	11.9	14	5.3	67	0.8
Josh Smith	ATL	27	31	25	83	13.9	35	4.5	83	0.6
Chuck Person	IND	28	40	23.8	73	14.7	22	5	35	1.3
Kevin Martin	SAC	29	26	25.8	43	17	47	4	15	1.6
Ray Allen	MIL	30	51	22	17	19.1	7	6	1	2.3
DeMarcus Cousins	NOP	31	7	30.8	17	19.1	81	2.5	67	0.8
Blake Griffin	LAC	32	14	28.3	24	18.7	72	3	67	0.8
John Wall	WAS	33	37	24.3	24	18.7	35	4.5	53	1
Shawn Marion	PHX	34	46	23	66	15.1	22	5	74	0.7
Luol Deng	CHI	35	29	25.3	68	14.9	52	3.8	74	0.7
JJ Redick	LAC	36	51	22	89	12.7	22	5	4	2.1
Jamal Crawford	NYK	36	51	22	68	14.9	22	5	12	1.7
Robert Horry	LAL	36	51	22	142	7	22	5	74	0.7
Jason Kidd	DAL	39	48	22.5	91	12.5	29	4.8	28	1.4
Jerry Stackhouse	PHI	40	36	24.5	47	16.8	52	3.8	53	1
Peja Stojakovic	SAC	41	37	24.3	47	16.8	52	3.8	2	2.2
Mark Price	CLE	42	44	23.3	63	15.2	41	4.3	28	1.4
Terry Porter	POR	42	44	23.3	96	12.2	41	4.3	53	1
Jason Williams	MEM	44	62	21.5	116	10.2	14	5.3	24	1.5
Serge Ibaka	OKC	45	35	24.8	99	11.9	58	3.5	74	0.7
Glen Rice	MIA	46	41	23.5	30	18.3	52	3.8	15	1.6
Deron Williams	BKN	46	41	23.5	55	16.2	52	3.8	28	1.4
James Worthy	LAL	48	20	26.8	39	17.6	86	2	103	0.1
Dennis Scott	ORL	49	62	21.5	93	12.4	22	5	8	1.8
Joe Johnson	BKN	50	58	21.8	67	15	29	4.8	24	1.5

NBA Fast Break Grid

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